Did Bitcoin top out at $1,08,367? Critical levels to watch

1. Current pattern unfolding

• Five-wave rally: The impulsive rally starting from $52,568 appears to have topped out at $1,08,367.

• V-shape reversal: Bitcoin retraced sharply to $92,209 on 20th Dec 2024.

• Sideways movement: Over the past 6-7 days, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase between $92,209 (lows) and $99,872 (highs), forming a Flat Correction (ABC Wave).

Daily chart - Bitcoin 

 

Key observations

 

• Wave-C: Appears to be an impulsive sequence internally, ending with a Rising Wedge near $99,872.

• Critical support: $92,209 – the low from 20th Dec 2024.

30 mins chart - Impulsive wave C of flat correction 

 

2. Catching the tops with wave patterns ( 30 mins chart) 

 

• The rising wedge or ending diagonal at $99,872 highs is one of the most rewarding patterns in Elliott Wave analysis.

• Understanding and applying this pattern effectively allows you to catch tops and prepare for reversals.

• Key takeaway: If you're on the right side of the pattern—as I was recently—you can reap significant rewards from such setups.

 

3. Possible strategies

Scenario 1: Fall below $92,209

• If Bitcoin breaks below $92,209, it could confirm a larger corrective phase.

• Key downside targets:

  • $83,625: Equality projection of the fall from $1,08,367 to $92,209.

  • $73,555: 162% extension projection of the same move.

• Strategy:

  • Wait for confirmation below $92,209 before entering short positions.

  • Use $92,209 as the invalidation level for bullish positions.

Scenario 2: Holding above $92,209

• Bitcoin may continue its consolidation, eventually breaking higher.

• Strategy:

  • Monitor for a breakout above $99,872 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

  • Target higher levels for Wave-2 correction, with stops below $92,209.

4. Outlook for next week (by 3rd Jan 2025)

• The sideways movement is expected to resolve, providing clear directional cues.

• Bearish bias: Favored if $92,209 breaks decisively.

• Bullish potential: A strong hold above $92,209 with a breakout above $99,872 could invalidate the bearish outlook and has to be reviewed again later.

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