GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD battles 1.2500 amid cautious markets
GBP/USD reverses gains and holds steady near 1.2500 in the European session on Thursday. Persistent US Dollar demand and a risk-averse market environment remain a drag on the pair. Traders await the return of full markets before placing fresh bets to begin 2025.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
GBP/USD trades below the 20-period and the 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, while fluctuating below the descending trend line coming from December 10. Although these technical signs suggest that the bearish bias remains intact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator recovers toward 50, reflecting a loss of momentum.
On the upside, 1.2540-1.2550 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA) aligns as first resistance area before 1.2575 (descending trend line) and 1.2615 (100-period SMA). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.2500 (round level, psychological level), 1.2440 (static level) and 1.2400 (static level, round level).
Fundamental Overview
GBP/USD closed in the red on Monday and Tuesday, pressured by the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength. Following the New Year break, the pair trades marginally higher on the day above 1.2500.
Safe-haven flows dominated the action in financial markets toward the end of the year and helped the USD outperform its rivals. In the European morning on Thursday, US stock index futures rise between 0.5% and 0.7%, pointing to an improving risk mood.
The US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which is forecast to rise to 224,000 from 219,000. In case there is a bigger increase than expected, the USD could come under selling pressure with the immediate reaction.
Investors will also pay close attention to the risk perception in the second half of the day. A bullish opening in Wall Street, followed by a risk rally, could hurt the USD and allow GBP/USD to gather recovery momentum.
The UK economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Friday. Ahead of the weekend, the ISM will publish the US Manufacturing PMI data for December.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling surrenders gains as US Dollar extends rally Premium
The Pound Sterling hit three-week highs against the US Dollar but then corrected. GBP/USD gears up for the Fed and BoE policy announcements, the grand finale for 2024. Pound Sterling buyers will likely stay reluctant below the key 200-day SMA at 1.2820.
GBP/USD Big Picture
GBP/USD Bullish Themes
GBP/USD BEARISH Themes
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD extends slide toward 1.0300, touches new two-year low
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades at its lowest level since December 2022 below 1.0350 on Thursday. The pair turned south amid a resurgent US Dollar demand and worsening market mood. Investors stay cautious at the onset of 2025, awaiting the US jobs data for fresh incentives.
GBP/USD battles 1.2500 amid cautious markets
GBP/USD reverses gains and holds steady near 1.2500 in the European session on Thursday. Persistent US Dollar demand and a risk-averse market environment remain a drag on the pair. Traders await the return of full markets before placing fresh bets to begin 2025.
USD/JPY drops to test 157.00 amid thin trading
USD/JPY turns south to test 157.00 in Thursday's Asian trading, erasing early gains. The pair loses traction as risk sentiment deteriorates on bleak Chinese PMI data and revives the safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen. Thin liquidity conditions also exaggerate USD/JPY moves as Japan is on holiday.
Gold price appreciates due to a potential central bank purchases this year
Gold price rises for the third consecutive session on Thursday, following a more than 27% increase in 2024, marking its best performance since 2010. This upward momentum has been driven by US monetary easing, persistent geopolitical tensions, and record central bank purchases.
WTI holds positive ground above $71.50 as API reports draw in crude inventories
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.60 on Thursday. The WTI price trades with mild gains after the American Petroleum Institute weekly report showed US crude stockpiles continued to shrink.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 GBP/USD forecast!
2024 GBP/USD FORECAST
In the GBP/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes there are plenty of unknowns and looming uncertainties that make it difficult to convincingly predict the course of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar (USD) in the year ahead. On both sides of the Atlantic, increased odds of a recession, a dovish pivot in the monetary policies and general elections are foreseen as the key factors driving the GBP/USD price action next year, barring any unprecedented geopolitical risks. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD witnessed a rollercoaster ride in 2023 but the Pound Sterling managed to preserve the recovery gains seen in the first half of the year to a 15-month high of 1.3142.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR GBP/USD
BoE policymakers continue to push back against expectations of rate cuts next year. However, deteriorating economic performance prompted money markets to begin pricing in four 25 bps rate cuts starting from the summer, anticipating the key rate to be slashed from 5.25% to as low as 4.25% by the end of 2024. The first cut is expected as early as June, to 5.0%.
Even though the Bank of England largely shrugged off a 0.3% contraction in GDP for October, the prospect of a recession in the run-up to a 2024 national election remains high.
A general election is expected next year in the US and the UK, which could fuel intense volatility around the GBP/USD pair. Amidst looming inflation and growth concerns, the political developments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be closely followed.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound / Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Sterling - US Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.