Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
While the press release at the December meeting stated that the "policy rate may be cut once again during the first half of 2025", the rate path and the minutes released today reveal that most Riksbank members are eyeing a cut in either January or March (Q1), rather than later during H1.
On the exact timing, Jansson seemingly prefers January ahead of March and Bunge makes a similar comment. Breman says "beginning of 2025", while Thedéen and Seim seem to be on the more hawkish side, not specifying the exact timing but sticking to "H1 25".
Our call is for the Riksbank to pause in January and cut in March (and June), but there is clear uncertainty about the exact timing and today's minutes give some support to a January cut if anything. Current market pricing and also the rate path suggesting a 50/50 distribution between January and March seems fair at this point.
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